Desk Report,
Rice prices in the world market are at their lowest in eight years, rising in the domestic market
The price of rice in the world market has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, a major blow to many farmers in Asia. Record production and the lifting of India’s export ban have increased supply in the market. This has led to a decline in rice prices.
Rice prices in the world market are at their lowest in eight years, rising in the domestic market
Thailand’s export price of 5 percent broken white rice is known as the benchmark in the world market. The price of this rice recently fell to $372.50 per tonne. This is 26 percent lower than the end of last year. It is also the lowest since 2017. But even though rice prices have fallen in the world market, it has not had an impact on the domestic market.
The decline in rice prices began in September 2024. At that time, India, the world’s largest rice exporter, began to gradually lift export bans. This event had a major impact on the rice market. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the price index for all types of rice has fallen by 13 percent this year. Financial Times (FT)
The issue is very simple – excess supply in the market. Last year, India had a record rice production. This year too, it will have a record harvest. However, the opposite picture was seen in early 2024. Then, when India imposed one export restriction after another, rice prices reached their highest level since 2008. Panic arose among consumers around the world. People started hoarding. Other producing countries also took protectionist measures.
Rabobank senior analyst Oscar Tjakra said that after the record production in the 2023-24 season, India changed its export policy towards the end of the year as government warehouses in India were full. Since then, the rush has started to ease. This is the main reason for the decline in rice prices. With the increase in production in Thailand and Vietnam, world rice production reached a record level during the marketing season.
Another infallible rule of the market when it comes to falling prices is that demand is falling. Indonesia, a major rice buyer, imported in advance last year. It did not buy rice from the market in 2025. The Philippines has also stopped importing rice until October to protect domestic prices during the main harvest. Mohanty said, “There is no Indonesia, no Philippines — there are no buyers for white rice at the moment.”
According to the FT news, this unusual supply in India is the result of progress in the agricultural sector. Almost all of the country’s main rice-growing regions now have irrigation systems. As a result, rice production is protected during droughts and uncertain monsoon rains.
Analysts say that India has essentially come out of dependence on monsoon rains. As a result, the country’s rice production has been protected. Farmers are now buying new seeds almost every season. This is increasing yields. Apart from this, farmers are also getting interested in paddy production, encouraged by the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and state-based bonuses. That is, the range and production of paddy rice is increasing. Farmers know that paddy is the most profitable crop—there is MSP, there is bonus, and the risk is low. Due to these reasons, rice production has increased in India.
But in many Asian countries, farmers do not have such protection. Therefore, when prices fall, it has a major impact on their income. As a result, the situation is becoming more difficult due to the high cost of farming and inflationary pressures.
This price reduction is a relief for consumers. In countries that depend on rice imports, this price reduction will help reduce the overall inflation of food products and the pressure on family budgets. Rice prices have indeed come down a lot so far this year. But this is not the end; analysts believe that rice prices are likely to fall by up to 10 percent more. This is the main reason because there are no buyers in the market.
According to Mohanty, in May this year, about 60 million tonnes of rice were stored in Indian government warehouses—about 15 million tonnes more than the average stock in recent years. To free up space before the new crop arrives, New Delhi is selling rice on the domestic market and even for ethanol production.
Mohanty also said, “We have entered a cycle of falling rice prices. Now, barring a war or some other major shock, this trend does not seem to change in the next two years.”
Rice prices are not falling in the country
Meanwhile, despite the decline in rice prices in the global market, rice prices in the domestic market have been high for quite some time. In July, the price of all types of rice in the market increased by 5-6 taka per kg. Even during the peak rice season, prices in the domestic market have increased.
According to government data, 10 lakh 34 thousand 879 metric tonnes of rice were imported till April 17, 2025, after permission was granted for rice import on November 17, 2024. In addition, the harvest in the Boro season has also been good. But even then, the price of rice has not decreased, but rather is increasing.
Analysts say that the country is not self-sufficient in rice production. In that case, it must be imported at the right time so that demand-related pressure does not create a separate crisis in the rice market. If the supply is right, the opportunity for manipulation in the market is reduced. But rice import is generally prohibited in Bangladesh. The government imports rice with special permission. It is known that if the import is not timely, there is an opportunity for manipulation in the market.
Rice is the main food grain of the country’s people. If the price of rice increases, it has the greatest impact on inflation. Rice is a major expenditure item for poor families. Therefore, analysts believe that it is important to keep the price of rice under control.
