Desk Report,
Is Israel planning a second war against Iran?
Israel considers itself victorious in last month’s 12-day war with Iran. Several Iranian military commanders were killed during the war, Iran’s defense capabilities were weakened and the United States agreed to participate in the attack on the Fordow nuclear facility – all of which Tel Aviv sees as major successes.
Is Israel planning a second war against Iran?
However, despite claiming victory, Israeli leaders have made it clear that they are ready to strike again if necessary. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that he is not willing to back down even an inch from his military pressure and aggressive policy against Iran.
Analysts told Al Jazeera that Israel is already looking for the right opportunity for another major conflict to destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, to wage another such war, Israel would need US approval. And it is uncertain whether Washington will grant that approval.
The first direct conflict between the two countries began with an Israeli surprise attack on Iran in mid-June. More than 1,000 Iranians and 29 Israelis were killed. Israel claims it carried out the attack in self-defense to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. However, Tehran has long insisted its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only.
Analysts told Al Jazeera that Israel is already looking for the right opportunity for another major conflict to destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In an interview with Al Jazeera earlier this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he was skeptical about how long the current ceasefire would last.
“We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military aggression. Our armed forces are capable of striking deep inside Israel again,” Pezeshkian said.
The motive behind the war
While Israel claims it only targeted nuclear facilities, it has in fact killed several high-ranking Iranian government and military officials. The attack is clearly being seen as an attempt to weaken Iran and overthrow the government in the country.
We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military aggression. Our armed forces are once again capable of striking deep inside Israel.
—Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran
Treita Parsi, an Iran expert and co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a left-leaning US think tank, said Netanyahu is looking for an opportunity to embark on that mission again.
Trita said the reason behind Israel’s renewed desire to strike is because it wants to make Iran like Syria or Lebanon, where Israel can strike whenever it wants without any accountability.
Preparing to create a new pretext
Analysts say that if European countries reimpose strict sanctions on Iran, it could be a “golden opportunity” for Israel to wage another war.
Earlier this July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the UK. They agreed that UN Security Council sanctions on Iran would be reimposed if a new nuclear deal was not reached by August.
The sanctions were lifted after Iran signed a nuclear deal with the European Union, the US and other world powers in 2015. However, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions under a policy of “maximum pressure”.
Another major Israeli attack may not come soon, but a New York Times report says that Israel is already carrying out covert sabotage operations in Iran. Three intelligence officials and a European diplomat said that Israel is responsible for sudden explosions and fires in Iranian apartment buildings, oil refineries, areas near airports and a shoe factory.
If European countries follow suit, Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Parsi fears. He says that would create a political opportunity for Israel to launch another attack.
Meir Zavedanfar, a professor of Iran studies at Israel’s Reichman University, said it would be difficult for Israel to launch an attack on the country without providing credible evidence of a nuclear program.
The professor warned that Israel would need permission from the United States and President Trump to launch such an attack. However, Washington’s concerns about Israel’s aggression in Syria make that permission unlikely.
